Well I got my streak to 9 in a row before my Bearcats had another let down in the tournament. Took two bad beats throughout the madness of the first two days, the NC State ML and the VCU under. At least with the Wolfpack we got the majority of it back on the +3.5, not so much in the VCU game. The under was safe the whole way…until that stupid foul on the 3pt shooter in the last 5 seconds. Even with him making that 3, if VCU wouldn’t have fouled the shooter the under still would have hit…and thats throwing in two more FT’s. Terrible way to lose for the folks in Richmond, and a terrible way to lose on the under. Betting these tournament games though is like a boxing match. Although the first round or two has the most build up, the warrior comes out late. Although we’re not happy with 3/6 in the first round…we survived.
3/22/14 Plays
San Diego State -3.5
Reasons: The Aztecs I feel are maybe the most underrated team in this tournament (although I thought Duke was as well). Steve Fisher has built a great program, as SDSU has made 5 NCAA tournaments in a row. They proved that they can win games outside of the MW in non-conference play when they took down both Creighton and Kansas. I like North Dakota St, as I had them winning in both of my brackets. I think though they will have trouble with the defensive pressure that the Aztecs bring.
UConn +4.5/ML
Reasons: People forget that UConn was one of the only two teams in college basketball to knock off UF. Napier will be the best player on the floor tonight, which is always a big advantage in a basketball game. I know Nova only lost 3 games in the regular season, but I just don’t see a lot there. They beat Kansas in non-conference. The only other legit team in the Big East this year was Creighton, and they lost to them both times…plus a first round exit in the Big East tournament. It’s not a very experienced team either. I put 65% of the bet on the +4.5, and the other 35% on the ML.
ML Parlay: UF, Cuse, Michigan St, Wisconsin
3/23/14 Plays
Creighton/Baylor O/143.5
Reasons: It seems like the only way to bet Creighton games is to roll with over. McDermott has had 18 games in which he has scored 27 or more. Baylor averages 75 ppg game while Creighton averages 79. Baylor has scored 74 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Creighton has scored 76 or more in 4 of their last 5. I see both teams at the very least crossing the 70 point mark, and I expect the total to actually finish in the 150s.
UVA/Memphis U/129.5
Reasons: I would imagine you would have made a lot of money just betting UVA unders blindly this season. 23 of their 35 games I finished at 129 or less. Even Memphis D has stepped up recently, 3 out of their last 4 they have held their opponent to 66 or less. This total is a little inflated I think because of UVA scoring over 70 in their past 2 games…I don’t see them doing it again tomorrow night.
Boogity Boogity Boogity
Another race day is upon us, as we will have one every week until November. Next week I will be at the Martinsville race, so lets see if we can get going on a roll to head into it with a head full of steam.
Harvick/Bowyer/Stewart to win race and finish top 3
Reasons: Harvick has the best car, Bowyer has a solid history at California and a solid car, and Stewart has the best odds out of anybody in the field. Harvick had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average in the second practice. Bowyer had a stretch between the fall race in 2009 thru 2012 at California in which 6 consecutive races he finished top 15, five of them he finished top 10, and one he finished runner up. Stewart is coming off a tough Bristol race where he finished top 5, he has won 2 out of the past 4 events at California. You should makes these bets so if just one of the drivers finish 2nd or 3rd you at least break even, if not show a profit.
Stewart finish better than Biffle
Stewart finish better than Newman
Logano finish better than Hamlin
Harvick finish better than Dale Jr.
Will have a new blog up on Wednesday. I will have a little segment on TWD as the season is winding down. Follow on twitter: @sraines2
Have a good weekend, y’all.
itsalock 