Happy Thanksgiving everybody! Four straight days of luscious football on the horizon. We have a few specials for this week: 2 weekly fantasy lineups (1 for Thanksgiving and 1 for Sunday), I will change my “Big 5 Plays” to my “Big 7 Plays”, 3 “love” plays instead of 2, and a college basketball play. Lets get started.
My Big 7 Plays of the Week
Buffalo +1.5
Reasons: I believe this is the sneakiest big game of the weekend. Buffalo (8-3, 6-1) hosting Bowling Green (8-3, 6-1) on Friday, as the winner of this game will get Northern Illinois and Jordan Lynch next Friday in the MAC championship. This line I think is an overreaction to Bowling Green last 3 games. They have won 3 in a row by 42 or more, but what a lot of people don’t consider is in those 3 games their opponents are a combined 8-25. Buffalo hasn’t lost a game at home all season, and I don’t think they will start on Friday.
Pittsburgh/Miami U/Closing Total
Reasons: Miami has some misleading numbers as far as scoring and PPG. Their last two games they have scored 30 and 45. When they scored 45 last week against UVA, 14 of their points came from defensive TD’s. The week before that, when they put up 30 on Duke, 7 points came from a special teams TD. You can’t count on those points on a weekly basis, as you can usually chalk it up as luck. The 5 games before Miami played before UVA, they scored 3 TD’s or less in all. They’re averaging 35 PPG, but that is including a 77 point output against D-2 Savannah St. Pittsburgh has 3 TD’s or less 4 of their last 5 games and 6 of their last 8 games. The total for is at 56, and if anything it will climb. The high for Pittsburgh on Friday is 30 degrees.
Duke/UNC O/60
Reasons: This was the most surprising total of the weekend for me. UNC has scored 34 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Duke has scored 5 TD’s or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Both teams are averaging over 33 PPG. UNC defense has had a solid year, but the have only faced 3 teams that are averaging more than 30 PPG. In those games they gave up 27, 28, and 55. If you want this play, get it now as the number should climb over the next two days. Suppose to be in the high 40s and sunny Saturday in Chapel Hill.
Georgia Tech +The Closing Number
Reasons: I’m surprised at this number, but I am even more surprised that the majority is backing Georgia. I know that Georgia has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this in-state rivalry, and that the SEC is a better conference than the ACC in football. I think if there was ever a time for GT to knock them off, this is the year. Aaron Murray (QB for UGA) is out. GT is 5-1 at home this year, and UGA is 1-3 on the road (with their one win being in OT against Tennessee.) GT is a run heavy team, as they’re 5th in the country in rushing yards per game. The leading rusher for the opposing team against UGA this year has averaged 3.8 YPC or more in every game (not counting the 2 games where they didn’t play BCS eligible teams.) Right now it is +4 GT, and if anything it will climb.
UNLV +3.5
Reasons: This number I think is off because of conference records (SDS 6-1, UNLV 4-3.) 6/7 of San Diego St. wins have been by 1 score! You can honestly say they have been the luckiest team in college football this year. Two weeks in a row they have won it OT, 3/4 of their overtime games this year they have won. With UNLV getting an extra two days to prepare and at home, I will take them with the 3.5 points.
Jets -2
Reasons: The Jets value is at a low for the year, as they have lost two weeks in a row by 16 or more. The Dolphins have won ATS 3 out their last 4 games. New York this season is 4-1 overall and ATS at home. Teams the week after they play the Panthers this season are 2-8 (Miami played Carolina this past Sunday.)
Bills – Closing Number (when it gets to -3)
Reasons: The Bills are a little better than their 4-7 record implies. They’re 6-5 ATS, and 5-1 ATS at home. In games that Manual has started and finished at QB they’re 4-2 ATS. Atlanta has been the worst road team so far in the NFL. 0-5 overall and ATS, when not playing in Atlanta. I like this if you can grab it -3 or lower. A few books already have it -3, and judging by where the money is coming in most books by Sunday will have it at -3. Edit: Didn’t figure out the game was being played in a dome in Toronto until yesterday, so I am going to scratch that pick. Instead…
Browns/Jags U/40
Reasons: I know, 40 is a pretty small number. It is tied for the smallest total of the week…but there is a reason why. Weeden is getting the start on Sunday. In games that he has started and finished the Browns have scored 10, 6, 17, and 13. The Jags are averaging 13 points a game, and Cleveland D is 4th in the league in net yards per game. I expect this game to be a lot like last weeks pillow fight with the Texans/Jags…sloppy, bad, low scoring football.
I know you guys wanted a Thanksgiving football game, but those lines were fairly tight and I didn’t see much value. Instead, I will give you a college basketball game.
Oklahoma St. -13.5
Reasons: It seems that everybody else has realized what I was told you guys a month before the season started…the Cowboys are really good (recommend them at 40-1 to win the title: https://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/the-ideas-of-march/) Purdue is 5-0, but they have not been impressive. They beat Northern Kentucky by 1, beat Rider by 4, and was only beating Siena by 3 with 12 minutes to go in the game. Oklahoma St. has beaten everybody they have played by 21 or more, including Memphis.
For you fantasy guys, here is our weekly lineup. The past few weeks they have been pretty successful, see if we can keep it rolling.
Thanksgiving
QB: Flynn $5,400: Good value, and Flynn looked good last week when he came in. Don’t forget that his big 400 yard game 2 years ago was against the Lions.
RB: Lacy $7,500: 7 of his last 8 games he has had 22 carries or more. Averaging over 4 yards a carry on the year.
RB: Murray $7,100: Averaged over 5.5 yards a carry in last 2 games, should be involved in passing game.
WR: Dez $8,900: In his last 4 games he has seen 52 targets!
WR: Brown $8,000: In his last 5 games he has seen 55 targets!
WR: Burleson $5,100: Good value, appears he is the number 2 after last week.
TE: Witten $6,900: Best TE of the day, 3 TD’s in the last 3 weeks.
K: Janikowski $5,500: Best leg in the NFL, kicking in a dome.
DEF: Cowboys $5,500: Backup QB on the road.
Sunday
QB: McCown $6,100: Has played well in his starts, good matchup.
RB: AP $9,100: Best RB in the league against a soft D.
RB: Jackson $5,600: Good value, great matchup.
WR: Marshall $9,100: Best WR going on Sunday.
WR: Fitz $7,100: Having a good season with Carson, great matchup.
WR: Cruz $6,500: Big play guy, a lot big plays happen against the Skins.
TE: Davis $6,100: Good value, Kaep favorite target.
K: Gould $5,000: In a dome, should be plenty of scoring.
DEF: Panthers: $5,300: Maybe the best D in the league, against a rookie QB.
If your teams, plays, or fantasy players are have a rough day tomorrow or if you just don’t like sports (weird) then I recommend FXX. They’re airing How I Met Your Mother from 7 till 7 tomorrow! Personally it is one of my favorite sitcoms of all time.
That’s it for this time, check back on Monday as we review my plays, review my weekly fantasy leagues and find out if my actual fantasy team got a bye in the 1st round of the playoffs, talk about The Walking Dead (mid-season finale!), and go into the Chargers/Bengals game.
Have a good holiday weekend, y’all.
itsalock 