Geno and the Jets looked as rough as my picks were this weekend. Coincidence that the Jets were involved in my picks? I would guess not. A lot to cover: all my bad plays, bowl projections, NFL playoff picture, and The Walking Dead mid-season finale. Lets get into it.
Where I was wrong
The past two weeks I was able to keep this short (8-2) but not the case this go around. It started on Friday, as Bowling Green got the W in Buffalo. The game was a lot closer than the final score (Buffalo was ahead at halftime, believe it or not.) The Falcons just ran down their throat, as they had a combined 48 carries for 260 yards. It was big “swing and a miss” in the total for Miami/Pittsburgh. I thought Morris and the Canes would struggle on the road in cold weather, but it didn’t even phase them. Morris threw 2 TD’s within the first five minutes.
Saturday was a frustrating day to say the least. It started with Duke/UNC not getting to the total of 60. The game was on track the whole way, 32 at halftime and 46 going into the 4th quarter. Both offenses struggled in the end, as there was only a combined 6 points in the final quarter. Then we go to the GT/UGA game, which was my “bad beat” of the week. GT started off great, up 20-0 with 2 minutes to go until halftime…and we had points! Played sluggish in the 3rd quarter, but still had a 10 point lead with 9 minutes to go in the game. Georgia finds a way to get the game to OT, and they win the coin toss. GT though scores a TD on the 1st possession. Georgia then answers with their own TD in 3 plays, they follow in the 2nd OT with a TD on their 1st play.
Sunday we wasn’t even in the ballpark. The Jets looked awful against the Dolphins, as it was mainly Geno having problems. They brought in Simms for the 2nd half, but it didn’t make a difference. The Browns/Jags actually turned into a shoot-out…sounds weird as I type. Weeden had probably the best game of his career, and the game went way over.
Where I was right
Not much to write about in this section, but at least we are able to have this section! UNLV not only kept within a FG Saturday night, they won outright 45-19 over San Diego St. Coming into the game San Diego St had won two in a row in OT, it seemed that their luck would change sooner rather than later. Herring had a big senior night, having a combined 6 TD’s.
Tough holiday weekend going 1-6. Last week we pulled close to the .500 mark overall, took a hit though this go around dropping to 26-32 total.
My fantasy team secured a 1st round bye in the playoffs this weekend, mainly because of Alshon Jeffery. Two years in a row I have clinched a 1st round bye, as last year my team hoisted the trophy. If I was to again this year then I just might retire from the league. If you rolled with my weekly leagues then you had a good day yesterday. Solid play from almost every spot, combining for over 130 points. We needed it after the dud Thanksgiving day my lineup had. Roll the dice with Flynn, you get rolled.
Bowl Game Stuff
Sadly, football is getting close to the end. We have conference championship week ahead (love to see that Missouri/Auburn spread to keep climbing) and then bowl season. CBS has their bowl projections which is updated daily: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions. You have to keep in mind that these projections are based off certain games this weekend. Assuming: Ohio St. wins the Big 10 Title game, Auburn wins the SEC Title game, Stanford wins the Pac 12 Title game (odd, sense ASU is favored) and etc. I think its hilarious that 2 loss Clemson is about guaranteed the Orange Bowl because of their ACC affiliation but 2 loss South Carolina who beat Clemson will not be in the BCS. I also find it funny that even if Michgan St. losses to Ohio St. this weekend that they will still be playing in the Rose Bowl, just because of their Big 10 affiliation. We all know how flawed the BCS is…I guess we can just be thankful this is the end.
5 intriguing bowl potential games
Las Vegas Bowl, Fresno St. vs USC: Derek Carr is one of the best QB’s that you don’t know about. Kiper has him as the 8th best QB in the upcoming draft, and the best MW player in this draft. He has combined for 4 TD’s or more in 9 of Fresno St. 11 games, and has threw for 400 yards or more 7 of Fresno St. 11 games. USC just announced their new head for the upcoming years, and I don’t know why it couldn’t wait. Haden (the AD) knows more than likely they’re heading to the Las Vegas Bowl, which is less than three weeks away. Seemed reasonable and fair to put that aside until after the game. Kessler has improved over the season for the Trojans. You won’t see big number because of USC style of play, but his last four games: 6 TD’s/O INT’s and he also has a completion percentage over 60% in his last four games.
Pinstripe Bowl, Notre Dame vs Cincinnati: The Irish have had an odd season to say the least. They beat ASU/Michigan St. and gave Stanford a good game this weekend, and all of those teams are playing for conference championships this weekend. They also lost to Pittsburgh/Michigan and Purdue gave them a good game. Cincinnati lost their duel-threat QB Legaux early in the season due to an injury that was hard to watch. The Bearcats really haven’t missed a beat though, as senior Brendon Kay has stepped in nicely. 8-1 as a starter this year. Cold weather football in Yankee Stadium is always enjoyable.
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Duke vs Texas A&M: This game would feature one of the best Duke football teams ever facing one of the most popular college football players ever. It will probably be Johnny Football last college game of his career, and buddy has it been an interesting ride. Manziel has had two rough games in a row, and I could see him going out with a bang.
Cotton Bowl, Baylor vs LSU: Baylor offense is fast…very fast. Nobody averages more points a game in college football than the Bears. We all know though that there is a huge difference between facing an Big 12 defense compared to facing an SEC defense. If Baylor is able to get some points on the board it would be fun to see Mettenberger throw the ball around. Kiper has him as the 5th best QB coming into this draft. You don’t get to see much of him though because LSU’s D usually wins the game for them. Six out of their last seven games they have only gave 3 TD’s or less.
Orange Bowl, Clemson vs Alabama: This is a game that Clemson doesn’t even belong in to begin with, but it would be an interesting match-up. The only two close Bama games this year involved the opposing team having scrambling QB’s. Boyd tends to beat you more with his arms rather than his legs…but he can still run. I also wonder if Bama will come ready to play. Two years in a row of playing in the national title, and undefeated until the last game of the season this year. I know it is a Saban coach team, but I still wonder where the mentality will be.
NFL Playoff Picture
Going into week 14, the playoff picture is coming clear. Lets state the obvious, as the AFC division winners are all but locked up.
AFC West: Broncos
AFC South: Colts
AFC North: Bengals
AFC East: Patriots
The only division I see a chance at another winner is the AFC North, and its pretty unlikely Cincinnati don’t take it. Sitting at 8 wins, and still have Minnesota at home. Then they win 1 of Indy, Pitt, Balt they’re sitting at 10 wins. Lets shift to the NFC, as it is not as clear.
NFC West: Seahawks, and they have all but locked up home-field after tonight’s beat down against the Saints.
NFC North: I feel comfortable saying the Lions. Only a 1 game lead on the Bears, but they already played Chicago twice and beat them both times. The Lions last two games are the Giants and Vikings. The Bears play Dallas this week, and still at Philly (which so does Detroit) and GB who should have Rodgers going. The Packers really hurt themselves with the tie against the Vikings instead of getting the W. GB will probably need to win out, which is possible with that schedule and having Rodgers back…but unlikely. Even if they win out I can still see Detroit winning 10 games.
NFC South: This division is a true toss up between the Saints and Panthers. Both teams at 9-3, and they still play each other twice. Both of these teams though have locked up playoff spots. Whoever don’t win the division should have the top WC spot in the NFC. Both the Panthers and Saints have beat the 49ers, and they’re both a game ahead of the 49ers.
NFC East: This division is a close toss up between the Cowboys and Eagles. Both teams at 7-5, with Dallas already beating the Eagles once. Dallas goes to Chicago this week, and I do think Philly has an easier schedule the rest of the way. I still give the edge to Dallas, they already have a win against the Eagles and there next match-up is in Arlington.
Lets go into WC teams. The Chiefs have locked up the top WC spot in the AFC. Most people are saying the Ravens will get the 2nd WC spot in the AFC…I am not so sure. I do think they’re in the best spot, as they should be 7-6 after beating the Vikings in Baltimore this week. Their last three games: @Detroit, vsNew England, @Cincinnati. I don’t know if they will win 2/3, as they have been terrible on the road this season. Miami, who is sitting at 6-6, don’t have a prayer at 9 wins. This week @Pittsburgh, next week they get the Patriots. Their last two games are Buffalo and the Jets, so 8-8 seems likely. I also think that Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Tennessee all have a chance to be 8-8. All I have to say is the NFL better hope Baltimore can get to 9 wins, because if not it will be one hell of a mess.
In the NFC it is pretty simple, 2nd place in the NFC South should be the top WC spot. The 49ers should be the 2nd WC spot (Arizona had to win this week to have a real shot at it.) With that, here is what our 1st round match-ups would look like.
NFC
Seahawks, Panthers/Saints have a bye
Cowboys vs Panthers/Saints
Lions vs 49ers
AFC
Broncos, Patriots have a bye (If the Bengals/Colts finish in a tie with New England both would hold the tiebreaker. The Bengals won head-to-head, the Colts should end with a better division record)
Bengals/Colts vs Chiefs
Bengals/Colts vs Ravens?
The Bengals and Colts play each other this weekend, and although both seem to have locked up their division…it is still a huge game. Not only does the winner get the lesser WC team in the 1st round, the winner also still has a shot at a bye.
The Walking Dead
Sad time for us Walking Dead fans, as we have to wait 2 months for the rest of the season. It was a good string of episodes, and had a good finale. Don’t really like that Michonne was the one that got the last “stab” at the Governor, at least from the characters from the prison. I would have rather seen Carl save his dad, or maybe Maggie get some revenge after what he did to Hershel. The show looks to be going in a whole new direction. The prison is gone, and so is the Governor.
Check back later this week for my plays of the week, fantasy football stuff, and more. There is also a play I gave on my twitter for Saturday. I figured it was worth a tweet because I think it is an overreaction and the number will climb throughout the next few days. You can find me on there at: @sraines2
Have a good week, y’all.
itsalock 