Keeping On

It’s Friday, and you know what that means….Cano signs a ridiculous contract! Besides that, we got another weekend of football on the horizon. Its a light Saturday for college football, but if you’re one of those guys that enjoy quality over quantity then you will be all set. Lets get right into it.

 

My Big 5 Plays of the Week

Missouri +1.5

Reasons: This number is a little disappointing to me, as I thought it would get driven by the public after Auburn beat Bama. The public looks to be betting Auburn, but the big betters look to be on Mizzu. Auburn has won two miracle games in a row, and had the biggest win for their program since Cam left last week. Missouri does not have any big top 5 win like Auburn, but the fact is they were a lot closer to finishing undefeated than Auburn. Auburn has won six games by 1 score, Missouri has won only one by 1 score. Auburn never had a chance to beat LSU, and Mizzu blew a 17 point lead against South Carolina. Missouri also has all the match-ups in their favor. They have played well against scrambling QB’s (Manziel 11 carries, 21 yards; Shaw 7 carries, -8 yards.) Missouri has one of best set of WR’s in the country, Auburn has a weak secondary. I would just take the ML straight up with this number, but since were doing spreads I will put a point in my pocket.

Fresno St. -3

Reasons: I think this number is an overreaction after Fresno suffered their first loss of the season last week. A lot of people are perceiving that since Fresno BCS chances are gone that they won’t show up, and I am not buying that. They’re playing for a conference championship on their on home-field, I think that is all the motivation they will need. Fresno has the best player in the MW on their side, David Carr. He is trying to improve his draft stock each week, and has been doing so. I don’t see Utah St. being able to keep up. Also like that Fresno had an extra day to prepare.

Bucs/Bills O/43

Reasons: Both of theses offenses have been playing better here of late. Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games (only time they didn’t was in Carolina last week.) Buffalo has scored over 30 points in back to back games, and they have scored 20 or more in 7 of the 8 games that Manual has started. This game features two rookie QB’s trying to make a name for themselves, and neither defense is good enough to keep us away. Suppose to be in the low 80s and sunny in Tampa on Sunday.

Steelers -3.5 (watch the number)

Reasons: Pittsburgh is better than their 5-7 record implies. They have lost 4 of the 5 one score games they played. Miami has won 4 of their last 5 ATS, that is not sustainable. Pittsburgh has had an extra two days to prepare for this game. The high for Sunday is 30, and there is suppose to be some snow as well…that will favor the Steelers. I like this number -3.5, I would love at -3…and you may be able to get that. Be cautious though, you don’t want be stuck with 4.

Saints -3.5 (watch the number)

Reasons: The Panthers are on quite the run right now, winners of 8 in a row and have won ATS in 7 of those games. That has to end, sooner rather than later. Not many teams have an home-field advantage like the Saints. Although Carolina has been one of the best defenses in the NFL this year, they have been average against the pass. I think they will have to throw the ball to keep up with New Orleans, and they haven’t did that all year. Exact same breakdown with the number as in the Steelers game.

I’ll give a special 6 point teaser for Sunday: Ravens -1/Broncos-7

Reasons: I can’t see Minnesota beating the Ravens on Sunday. It’s in Baltimore, and Minnesota don’t have a QB. That is how you beat the Ravens. I like the tease with Denver, at home going against a backup QB. Denver hasn’t had one of them Peyton blow-outs in awhile, I think we could see that on Sunday.

 

For you guys that are following the weekly leagues, we have had a good run…except for Thanksgiving (lets not talk about that.)

QB: Rivers $8,500: Good match-up facing the Giants in San Diego, throws the ball a ton.

RB: Moreno $8,300: Good match-up, should be a blow-out which means some carries in store.

RB: Murray $8,000: Great match-up, ever since he came back from his injury he has played very well.

WR: Megatron $10,000: You know.

WR: S. Smith $5,400: Great value, the Panthers should have to be throwing the ball.

WR: B. Smith $4,500: It’s a lottery ticket, but all the reports are saying he will be more involved.

TE: Fleener $5,300: Been involved a lot more in November.

K: Zuerlein $5,000: Playing in a dome, has a boot for a leg.

DEF: Ravens $5,000: Great value, not for sure why they’re so low.

 

I will add a college basketball game on here tomorrow, as they’re full slate of games for Saturday. It’s pretty tough to keep up with hoops when your in the mix of football season, but I try to give a game when I can.

Edit: As I said, I would give a college basketball play for this weekend.

USC -1.5

Reasons: This is not a neutral field game, it is being in California. USC has had over a week to prepare, BC just played four days ago. BC is always rough in non-conference, and this year is no exception. USC is undefeated at home, I think it keeps that way tonight.

 

Check back on Monday as we review all of my plays and fantasy team. We will recap the Bengals game this week (arguably the biggest game of the season for them.) We will try to dive into some music as well.

Have a good weekend, y’all.