Botch

 

 

Back to the winning side of column this week, at least my plays were. I couldn’t get in the Ravens +3, which totally messed up everything for me…I will leave it at that. Would have been a 4-1 week for my plays if it wasn’t for a guy you never heard of, Chris Maragos. At the end of the 1st half on Sunday, Seattle was lined up for a short FG to take a 10-3 lead into the half. Maragos (the holder) couldn’t handle the snap and Seattle did not convert on the FG, but it gets worse. Maragos fumbles the ball, in-which the Titans scooped up and took back to the house. Do the math, that is a 10 point swing! In case you haven’t seen the play, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1809587-titans-end-half-with-79-yard-td-after-seahawks-botch-fg-snap?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-league

 

Where I was wrong

I knew going in that Texas A&M defense was far from good, I learned though Saturday night it is far from average. Bo Wallace (the main QB for Ole Miss who was a 2 star recruit coming out of high school) threw for over 300 yards and 3 TD’s. Early in the 4th quarter Ole Miss went for it on 4th down on the 35 down by 7, they converted and the next play was a TD Rebels. Good chance if A&M got a stop they would have covered.

I wasn’t really wrong on the Seahawks/Titans, and yes I know they didn’t cover. In an NFL game though, when you have a fluky play that sways 7-14 points you better be on the right side of it. In college football, every now and then a team can come back from it and still cover because the lack of parity, but not in the NFL.

Where I was right

Missouri late in the 4th quarter up by 7 was able to punch in another TD inside the ten instead of settling for the FG. There was still over two minutes left in the game at the time, but that was able to push the game over. Georgia and A&M really reminded me of Big 12 teams, good offense and bad defense.

Detroit up by a TD with about three minutes left, had the ball in the rezone on 3rd and 4. Instead of playing it safe and running, making the Browns burn another timeout, they went for the knock out punch…in-which Stafford threw his 4th TD pass that pushed the game over. Josh Gordon had another big day for the Browns.

The sweat of the week, Baltimore covering. GB was up by 2 with the ball inside the redzone, 3rd and 2 with about a minute left. Lacy was able to get the 1st down without finding the endzone. The Packers went on to take two knee’s, and the Ravens had a backdoor cover. If Lacy gets stuffed on 3rd down then GB would have kicked a FG. To close for comfort in that one.

Neither parlay hit, but that’s why you get the odds that you do on those things. 3-2 this week, 10-11 overall.

A play that swayed a lot of money on Sunday was the game winning TD pass by Brady. Not only did it switch from NO covering to NE covering, it also took the game from under to the over. Talk about a sweat.

 

As I said last week, I feel like I am learning more and more as I go along. Here’s a few things so far.

• In the NFL, stay away from big favorites (-8 or more), especially on the road.
• Stay away from betting the over in the NFL when it’s over 50, to hard predict a shoot-out in the pros…no matter who is the QB.
• In college football, pay closer attention to key injuries. The difference between a starter and a back-up is usually greater than the pros.
• In college football, stay away from betting the over if the better offense is the away team.

I’m also making my own rankings for all the NFL teams, but its not based on who I think is a better team. It’s based off how good a team is compared to the value you are getting with the typical spreads. I am also predicting the NFL spreads before I see the lines, to see where I can find value. I may start doing that for college football as well.

 

My fantasy football team is riding high, going from 0-3 although way to 3-3. The difference? KC defense. 4 straight weeks over 15 points! If I finish in the money, I owe it all to those guys.

 

Bengals Report 

Cincinnati proved what we already know, they play to the level of competition. 4-2 is nothing to sneeze at, its a very solid start. It just would have been nice when the Bengals was up by 14 early in the 4th quarter, the Bills had the ball close to the redzone on 4th down. Buffalo went for it, and instead of getting the stop and putting the game to bed they gave up a TD and eventually had to win in OT. The positive is, for Dalton it was his best game of the season. He was getting everybody involved in the passing game, which open the field for Green to make big plays.

 

The Walking Dead

The Walking Dead is back, with the beginning of season 4. A few things we learned from the episode (spoilers) :

• Daryl has became the main player, Rick of course is still very crucial. Daryl though is leading the runs now, and deciding where they go.
• They have built a community.
• There might have been some kind of virus that has went air born.

The scene with the zombies falling through the roof was very well done.

 

Check back on Friday for the plays of the weekend, I may add some interesting props. I have been meaning to talk some postseason baseball, but I really haven’t got around to watching much. The Reds going out really took the interest out of me. Follow on twitter, @sraines2

 

Have a good week, y’all.